May 5, 2026
TWLO Just Had Its Best Quarter in Three Years. The Options Market Is Still Catching Up.
A 20%-plus gap, a beat-and-raise, and a call-flow frenzy — here’s what the tape is actually saying about Twilio right now.
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Below is an important message from one of our highly valued sponsors. Please read it carefully as they have some special information to share with you.
Dear Reader,
After years of research into Elon Musk’s critical technology projects, I have pinpointed an incredible opportunity off the back of his coming Starlink IPO…
An IPO set to break records as the biggest in history.
This opportunity is a single stock – revealed FREE – in this quick three-minute video.
I’m talking about a company that could absolutely explode in 2026.
On its face, it’s a chip manufacturer. They’re a dime a dozen in today’s AI age, right?
But here’s what sets this company apart:
Over the past decade, it has shipped 5 billion chips to Starlink. And they’ve said themselves that that number could double to 10 billion chips before the decade’s up.
I believe this virtually ensures that these two companies are locked into a long-term marriage…
Meaning as Starlink grows – this company will have to grow alongside it.
Here’s the best part.
Today, this company trades for less than 30 bucks.
Making it easily accessible for anyone to invest as soon as possible…
Before a potential Starlink IPO announcement on June 9.
Because of the fast-moving nature of this opportunity, I’m skipping the preamble – and giving you the ticker 100% free of charge in the video below:
Sincerely,
James Altucher
Editor, Paradigm Press
Below is an important message from one of our highly valued sponsors. Please read it carefully as they have some special information to share with you.
Dear Reader,
After years of research into Elon Musk’s critical technology projects, I have pinpointed an incredible opportunity off the back of his coming Starlink IPO…
An IPO set to break records as the biggest in history.
This opportunity is a single stock – revealed FREE – in this quick three-minute video.
I’m talking about a company that could absolutely explode in 2026.
On its face, it’s a chip manufacturer. They’re a dime a dozen in today’s AI age, right?
But here’s what sets this company apart:
Over the past decade, it has shipped 5 billion chips to Starlink. And they’ve said themselves that that number could double to 10 billion chips before the decade’s up.
I believe this virtually ensures that these two companies are locked into a long-term marriage…
Meaning as Starlink grows – this company will have to grow alongside it.
Here’s the best part.
Today, this company trades for less than 30 bucks.
Making it easily accessible for anyone to invest as soon as possible…
Before a potential Starlink IPO announcement on June 9.
Because of the fast-moving nature of this opportunity, I’m skipping the preamble – and giving you the ticker 100% free of charge in the video below:
Sincerely,
James Altucher
Editor, Paradigm Press
Something shifted in Twilio last week. Not incrementally — structurally. And if you weren’t watching the options flow on Friday, May 1, you missed one of the cleanest post-earnings setups of the quarter.
Let’s back up.
Twilio posted Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.50 against a $1.27 consensus, and revenue of $1.41B against $1.34B expected — its strongest revenue and gross profit growth in more than three years. The stock gapped from roughly $148 to $177 at the open and held. That’s not a bleed-in reaction. That’s a re-rating.
What made it more interesting wasn’t just the beat. It was the raise. Management lifted full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 14–15% from 11.5–12.5%, and boosted adjusted operating income to $1.08B–$1.1B. Then they guided Q2 revenue to $1.42–$1.43B — above consensus again. Beat, raise, guide above. That’s a pattern that tends to extend, not fade.
What the Options Market Actually Said
Options volume in TWLO ran at roughly 10x average on May 1, with calls outpacing puts 4:1. A series of block vertical spreads rolled aggressively higher — traders closing short positions at the 160, 165, and 170 strikes and chasing the move up into the 175–190 range. That’s not hedging. That’s a crowd of traders being wrong in a hurry and repositioning.
Bank of America flipped from Underperform to Buy and doubled its price target from $110 to $190. Rosenblatt went to $210. Monness Crespi moved to $200. The Street is not anchored — these targets are being rewritten from scratch.
The IV environment post-earnings has compressed, which matters. For traders who missed the initial gap, that vol crush opens the door for defined-risk structures rather than naked directional exposure.
The Narrative Has Changed — and That’s the Real Trade
Here’s the part people skip: Twilio isn’t being valued as a messaging API anymore. The Q1 call made clear that voice channel revenue grew 20% year-over-year, driven explicitly by AI use cases — the sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth in that segment. Messaging accelerated to 25% growth. These are not legacy metrics.
The framing from management — and now being echoed across upgrades — is that Twilio is positioning as foundational AI communications infrastructure, not just a developer tool. IDC and Omdia both named it a leader in 2026 for engagement platforms. That’s third-party validation stacking on top of fundamental acceleration.
Slight tangent, but worth noting: the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is down roughly 21% year-to-date. TWLO is up 30% YTD and 84% over the past twelve months. One name diverging this sharply from sector behavior is a signal, not noise.
The risk is real, though. Non-GAAP gross margin contracted 180 basis points year-over-year from carrier pass-through fees, with another ~200 bps of pressure expected for full-year 2026. At a trailing P/E above 700, there’s no margin of safety in the multiple — this is entirely a growth-rate story. If execution slips or AI spending cools, the compression will be fast.
For traders expecting continuation: a bull call spread in the June or July expiration — targeting the $185–$200 range — offers defined upside with capped premium outlay after the vol crush. For those watching for a fade: the $175 level is the prior resistance zone. A rejection there with rising put flow would be the technical tell. A defined-risk put spread below that level would frame the bear case cleanly. Neutral traders might find the post-earnings vol collapse makes an iron condor viable, assuming the stock consolidates between $170 and $195 into the next print.
The setup heading into Q2 is unusually clean. Either TWLO holds this new range and re-tests $190–$200 on continued AI momentum — or the stock stalls at prior resistance and gives back part of the gap. Both outcomes are tradeable. Neither is invisible.