Hey there, bargain hunter.
Let me tell you what just happened.
SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12. (Note: the CNBC link in the original draft could not be verified.) It raised $75 billion, priced at $135 a share, and closed its first day at $160.95 — a 19% gain that put its market cap above $2 trillion. Trading volume on day one was roughly 519 million shares, in the same universe as other mega-IPO debuts. By June 16, the stock had run all the way to an intraday high of $225.64.
And then it cooled off. Fast.
As of July 10, SPCX is trading around $148 to $150 — roughly 34% below that intraday peak, and only about 10% above its IPO price. The hype is fading. What’s left is the actual business, and the actual valuation question that nobody has honestly answered yet.
What SpaceX Actually Is Now
This is not just a rocket company. In February 2026 (effective February 2, 2026), SpaceX acquired xAI, folding Grok into the public-company story. Add that to Starlink and the launch business, and you have three distinct revenue streams in one stock.
Starlink accounted for roughly 61% of total revenue in 2025, generating $11.4 billion. And in the company’s IPO filing, SpaceX reported 10.3 million Starlink subscribers as of March 31, 2026.
Slight tangent, but it matters: SpaceX also announced plans to acquire AI code editor company Anysphere — parent of Cursor — for $60 billion in stock. That’s a lot of dilution baked into a stock already trading at eye-watering multiples.
The Valuation Problem
Here’s the tension every honest investor should sit with.
CFRA initiated coverage with a sell rating and a 12-month price target of $115, citing elevated valuation expectations and significant capital intensity. Capital expenditures in Q1 2026 alone totaled $10.107 billion, versus $4.140 billion in the same period a year earlier — the majority going toward AI.
On the other side: New Street Research initiated with a $165 price target, arguing the business can justify current valuations — but only if you’re willing to look out 20 to 25 years. That is a long time frame for any investor, let alone a bargain hunter.
SpaceX reported a net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025 on a GAAP basis, while also reporting adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion.
What’s Actually Coming
(Note: the August 6 date in the original draft could not be verified.) The first public earnings report is expected in mid-August, and it matters because it’s tied to the company’s first lockup release. SpaceX’s IPO materials describe a staggered lockup structure that allows some existing holders to sell up to 20% of their shares starting on the second full trading day after the company releases its first earnings report as a public company, with the potential for additional shares to become eligible depending on post-IPO price conditions.
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, after Nasdaq fast-tracked the company’s inclusion. That buying from index-tracking funds is a one-time event, not a recurring one.
What the Bull Case Actually Requires
The bull case for SPCX is real — it just requires a very specific set of things to go right simultaneously. Starlink keeps growing its subscriber base past 10 million and eventually becomes profitable at scale. The xAI tie-up generates genuine synergies rather than complexity. And Musk stays focused on the business rather than other endeavors. That is a lot of parallel execution at once.
Elon Musk has said SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025. That would require roughly a 50+ fold revenue increase in about five years. Achievable? Possibly. Guaranteed? Absolutely not.
The Bear Case
The bear case is simpler. The stock is trading at a very high multiple of revenue at current levels. Even if revenue accelerates sharply and the company generates around $28 billion in sales, a meaningfully lower price-to-sales multiple would imply a much lower market cap. Add in the dilution from the all-stock Anysphere acquisition and the lockup-related supply later this summer, and the downside path is not hard to draw.
Where This Leaves the Bargain Hunter
Right now, SPCX is in an uncomfortable middle: too cheap to feel like a bubble, too expensive to feel like a value play. The stock has pulled back about 34% from its peak but is still priced for perfection in a business that has not posted a GAAP profit.
The honest position is this: SPCX is worth watching very carefully into the first earnings report and the first lockup-related supply event that follows it. That earnings report will be the first real data point on whether the AI-related revenue is actually materializing, whether Starlink margins are improving, and what the combined SpaceX-xAI entity looks like as a public company. A disappointing result into simultaneous lockup selling pressure could push shares materially lower. A strong result could reopen the path back toward prior highs.
What happens next matters more than anything that has happened since June 12. That is the moment to watch.