November 3, 2026
Bonus Content: RBA Hiked to an 18-Year High. The Aussie Fell Anyway.
Editor’s Note: Larry Benedict – the hedge fund legend who beat the S&P 500 by 18 times in 2025 and made his clients $95 million during the 2008 crisis – says Trump’s installation of a new Federal Reserve chair is triggering the most significant shift in U.S. markets in nearly 20 years. He has already identified the one ticker he believes will be at the center of the money flows – and he’s revealing it completely free. Read more below…
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Do it wrong, and you’ll only capture a fraction of what’s possible.
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Regards,
Larry Benedict
Founder, The Opportunistic Trader
P.S. The current setup on TLT is more attractive than I have seen in years – but it won’t last forever – so if you want to learn how to position for what could be some of your best gains of 2026, click here.
RBA Hiked to an 18-Year High. The Aussie Fell Anyway.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% this morning, the fifth increase of 2026 and the highest level since December 2008. The market’s response was unambiguous: the Australian dollar dropped. AUD/USD fell below 0.70 after the decision, as a divided 6-3 vote weakened expectations of further tightening and raised the prospect of a December hold.
That is the lesson from today’s session, and it is one of the most reliable in currency trading. A rate hike that the market already owns is not a bullish catalyst. What moves a currency is what comes next.
What Happened
The Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, with six members voting for the increase and three voting to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.60%. The split vote and the softer tone in the statement caught markets off guard, triggering a decline in AUD/USD.
Governor Bullock said the effects of recent increases have not fully flowed through yet, and traders pared back bets on further hikes. In its November forecasts, the RBA now expects inflation to take longer to return to target than it projected in August, with inflation returning to the 2.5% midpoint of the 2-3% target range in mid-2028.
The growth and jobs picture darkened alongside it. The RBA’s November forecasts show unemployment rising from 4.4% in June 2026 to 5.1% by December 2028, higher at every point from late 2026 than it projected in August. Bullock said the RBA was trying to balance curbing inflation with not tipping the country into a recession “if we can avoid it”.
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Why the Dollar Fell
The hike itself was priced in. Investors anticipated a rate hike, and when an expected event lands as expected, there is no new information in the event itself. The new information came in the language around it.
The RBA dropped the clause from September’s statement that explicitly contemplated “increasing the cash rate target further if needed”. That single editorial change, buried inside a dry policy statement, told the FX market everything it needed. Removing that reference cast doubt on the continuation of the rate-hiking cycle and dealt a blow to AUD/USD.
How Professionals View It
Experienced traders distinguish between two types of central bank events: those that change the rate path and those that simply confirm what was already priced. Today was the second type masquerading as the first. The 25-basis-point move was noise. The 6-3 split and the softened forward guidance were the signal.
CommBank economists expect the RBA to remain on hold after lifting the cash rate to 4.85%, though inflation risks remain tilted higher, leaving another increase in 2027 a possibility. That kind of ambiguity tends to cap currency rallies. Traders unwilling to own a currency without a clear rate advantage on the horizon will look elsewhere.
On the equity side, the picture was more nuanced. Australian shares reversed course to tick higher after the central bank raised rates as expected and flagged that hikes since the start of the year had tightened financial conditions, with the ASX 200 up 0.3% at 8,886.8. Among the big miners, BHP dipped 0.6% to $56.42, while Rio Tinto shed 0.1% to $145.51. The major banks were mixed, with Commonwealth Bank up 1.3% to $167.23 and National Australia Bank gaining 0.2% to $40.97.
What Comes Next
The RBA’s next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 7-8 December, with the divided November vote strengthening expectations that the cash rate will remain at 4.85%. Watch whether the AUD finds a floor near the $0.6970-$0.6950 support zone. A bounce there without any renewed hawkish rhetoric from Bullock would confirm the market has fully digested the pause signal.
Australian bank stocks deserve attention heading into the December meeting. Rate-sensitive sectors recovered today, but if the pause solidifies and growth continues to slow toward CommBank’s forecast of 1% by mid-2027, the credit quality story for the banks may become the dominant variable rather than the net interest margin benefit.
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The Trader’s Lesson
A central bank that hikes rates while signaling it is nearly done has effectively delivered a dovish hike. The currency market reads forward guidance first and the rate decision second. Today, the RBA gave traders a 25-basis-point increase and then handed them three dissenting votes, a softer statement, and a delayed inflation timeline. The dollar fell because the market understood that the cycle’s ceiling is close, possibly already here. Whenever you trade around a central bank decision, ask not just what they did, but what they told you about what they will do. The second answer almost always matters more.