Here’s the thing about Nvidia right now. The fundamentals have never been stronger. The stock is trading near its lowest forward valuation since before the AI boom. And Wall Street is still arguing about whether it’s a buy.
That tension doesn’t last forever.
NVDA hit an all-time high of $236.54 on May 14, 2026. As of this week, it’s trading around $210 — roughly 11% off that peak — after a sustained pullback driven primarily by China export headlines and a broader semiconductor sector rotation. The business itself? Largely untouched.
The Numbers Behind the Noise
This is not a story about a company losing its edge. In fiscal year 2026, Nvidia’s revenue came in at $215.94 billion, a 65% year-over-year increase. Earnings were $120.07 billion, also up about 65%. Recent quarterly revenue of about $81.6B and net income above $58B show just how dominant Nvidia is in AI chips. Profit margins above 70% are rare in any sector.
For the second quarter of fiscal 2027, the company’s revenue is expected to be $91.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. Nvidia is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook.
- Q2 FY27 revenue guidance: ~$91B (consensus estimate: $91.73B)
- Q2 FY27 EPS estimate: $2.08 (range: $2.01–$2.20)
- Forward P/E: ~21.7x — now much closer to the average S&P 500 level
- 12-month avg analyst price target: $301.62 (61 analysts, Strong Buy consensus)
- Next earnings report: August 26, 2026
What’s Weighing on the Stock
China. That’s the short answer. The longer one is more nuanced.
What can be verified: Nvidia has said it is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China in its outlook, and management has discussed its China position as having effectively fallen to zero in the AI GPU market. Reuters reported that DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip to lessen reliance on Nvidia — the latest in a string of news about domestic silicon that will act as a recurring barrier for NVDA throughout 2026.
China has been reported (via Bloomberg) to be drafting a plan of about $295 billion (2 trillion yuan) over five years to build a national AI data center grid that would rely on at least 80% domestic technology, including chips from suppliers such as Huawei, which would effectively squeeze out Nvidia from much of that buildout.
Slight tangent, but it matters: Wells Fargo said this week that even a potential China H200 GPU reopening may be more limited than investors are pricing. The market listened. NVDA slipped after the note.
Here’s what the bears keep missing though — the China revenue is already gone. It was already excluded from Nvidia’s own guidance. When a company stops counting revenue from a market and still posts these numbers, that tells you something about the business underneath.
Nvidia has reportedly begun informing Chinese customers that they can place orders for its new Vera CPUs, with shipments potentially beginning in August. One major Chinese cloud provider is preparing an initial order for more than 300 servers built around Nvidia Vera chips.
What Analysts Are Saying This Week
Nvidia stock rose on Friday after Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore reaffirmed his Overweight rating and $288 price target following meetings with company management. Nvidia has long been the leader in AI chips, and Citi and Wedbush believe the company’s next phase of growth could come from much more than GPUs.
Nvidia remains the world’s most valuable company, but the stock is currently trading at one of its cheapest valuations in a long time. The consensus across 61 analysts: Strong Buy, $301.62 average price target — implying roughly 43% upside from current levels.
Bull / Base / Bear
Bull: Q2 FY27 earnings on August 26 beat the $2.08 EPS consensus. Vera CPU orders flow through from China. Blackwell supply constraints ease. Stock re-rates toward $280–$320.
Base: Earnings in line with guidance. No major China surprise. Stock grinds toward $240–$260 over the next two quarters as the earnings base continues expanding.
Bear: Export rules tighten further. The Vera CPU path gets blocked. AI capex from hyperscalers shows early signs of slowing. Stock tests $185–$190 support.
The Technical Picture
The 194–196 support zone is the key area to watch. Buyers have repeatedly stepped in there, and the volume profile suggests meaningful market participation. Long-term support holds above the MA-200 near $190. A clean close above $215 would be the first meaningful confirmation of trend recovery.
The all-time high of $236.54 is the level that matters on the upside. At current prices, you’re buying Nvidia at roughly the same forward multiple as the average S&P 500 stock. That framing doesn’t stay quiet for long.
What to Watch Before August 26
- Any update on Vera CPU orders from Chinese cloud providers
- July 14 CPI — the first macro trigger that could revive momentum or expose new pressure
- Broader Q2 earnings season tone from hyperscalers — any softening in AI capex language would move NVDA
- Export rule developments — the U.S.-China dynamic remains the single biggest binary risk
The real question isn’t whether Nvidia’s AI business is intact. It clearly is. The question is whether the market is willing to re-rate a company trading at average valuation multiples with above-average earnings growth. August 26 is when that debate gets settled — or starts again.
For informational purposes only.