Mark October 13 in red. Goldman Sachs reports Q3 results before the open that morning, and the number traders should also have in mind walking in is $500 million: the value of special equity awards set to vest for roughly 20 of the firm’s most senior leaders later this month, with CEO David Solomon taking the largest single share at more than $100 million.
Market Snapshot
GS shares closed Wednesday at $882.59, with a market cap of about $257 billion. The stock sits roughly 24% below its 52-week high of $1,153.99, reached on July 15, which adds an edge to the compensation discussion: half the award value depended on hitting specific stock price thresholds, and Goldman shares have surpassed the level that unlocks the maximum on that piece. The other half rides on relative performance against six rival firms; Goldman’s total shareholder return over five years came to about 150%, including reinvested dividends, outpacing every comparison company except Bank of New York Mellon at about 174%.
Stocks in Focus: GS, MS, JPM
Goldman’s top executives are set to receive special equity awards worth more than $500 million, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. The awards were granted in October 2021, and Goldman disclosed details in various filings starting in late 2021 and early 2022. These awards, first granted back in 2021, are expected to be finalized by the end of October 2026.
About 20 senior leaders will benefit, with Solomon reportedly set to receive more than $100 million. President and COO John Waldron, Solomon’s likely successor, along with executives Ashok Varadhan, Dan Dees, and Marc Nachmann are also on the list. A simple average across the 20 executives works out to about $25 million each. Setting aside $100 million for Solomon and dividing the remainder implies roughly $21 million apiece for the others. Solomon’s total compensation for 2024 was about $39.5 million.
The timing matters for how traders read Monday’s report. Goldman is expected to release Q3 results before the market opens October 13. Analyst estimates vary by source, but the Street is looking for EPS around the mid-teens on revenue around the high teens in billions. The firm’s previous quarter significantly exceeded expectations, with EPS of $20.98 and net revenues of $20.34 billion, up about 39% year over year. The bar is lower this quarter, which should in theory make it easier to clear. Whether management commentary on capital markets activity and deal flow can match Q2’s beat will set the tone for the stock well beyond Monday morning.
For peers, the earnings season context broadens quickly. The peer group used to calculate Goldman’s relative performance thresholds includes Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, and Wells Fargo. JPMorgan reports Q3 results on October 13, and Morgan Stanley reports on October 14, so the sector read will sharpen fast.
Technical Radar
GS trades below its MA-20 at about $938 and the MA-50 at about $994, while the longer-term MA-200 is about $960. Immediate resistance sits near $900, while support lies at $858.27. A strong Q3 beat would need to push GS back through that $900 cluster to shift the near-term structure. Anything short risks a test of the $858 floor.
The Cheat Sheet
- Top Theme: Goldman heads into earnings carrying one of the largest executive equity events in its history, a five-year payout that reflects real performance but will attract scrutiny on the call.
- Stock to Watch: GS. The $500 million vesting is not a surprise to the market, but Solomon’s $100 million slice and the succession backdrop around Waldron give analysts a second storyline to probe on October 13.
- Sector to Watch: Large-cap financials. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley earnings in the same window will determine whether the sector can reclaim momentum or stalls below key moving averages.
- Biggest Risk: Analysts have flagged sustained downside risk for GS amid bearish technical signals and mounting volatility. The upcoming Q3 earnings announcement introduces fresh uncertainty that may amplify short-term moves, making $858 a critical support level to monitor.
- One Thing to Remember: The $500 million figure is based on the current share price and could change when the five-year measurement period formally closes. The final number lands before earnings do. Watch both.